Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Church is now in search of its new leader.
To do so, the traditional conclave will be held in the Sistine Chapel, a process that could last several days until the famous white smoke signals that a new Pope has been chosen.
As with everything these days, betting markets have already sprung into action, speculating on who the next Pope might be. But if history has taught us anything, it’s that predicting the outcome is no easy task — after all, very few had placed bets on Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who was elected Pope Francis following Benedict XVI’s resignation.
The Top Contenders
Looking at Polymarket, a prediction platform where people are betting on, among other things, how many days the conclave will last (current bets suggest it could take several days), four candidates are currently leading the odds.
Interestingly, the chart showing the probability trends began updating even before Pope Francis passed away.
Here are the four current frontrunners:
- Pietro Parolin – 27%
- Luis Antonio Tagle – 19%
- Peter Turkson – 13%
- Matteo Zuppi – 12%
Even Donald Trump joined the online buzz, jokingly posting an image of himself dressed as the Pope (created with Artificial Intelligence).
Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your view), he cannot actually be elected Pope… or can he? Technically, any baptized male can be elected, though only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, so it’s almost certain the next Pope will be chosen from within their ranks.
Update 05/08: Habemus Papam! A new pope has been chosen after several days of conclave, and in the end, there was a surprise — it wasn’t any of the four favorites, but rather Robert Francis Prevost. He is the first American pope (although he also holds Peruvian citizenship) and will take the name Pope Leo XIV. White smoke was seen, and here is the video of his appearance on the balcony: